Grain bins
TIGHTER TIMES: Unless a farm is self-financed, has access to credit or did a good job of pre-harvest marketing new crop bushels, you can expect more cash-flow challenges to emerge this fall and winter.

Communication is key when cash flow is tight

Generating enough cash to pay bills is an increasing concern for many Iowa farms this fall.

Cash flow management is becoming even more critical in row crop agriculture. While most lenders like to emphasize strong balance sheets, it’s the ability to generate cash that pays the bills. Some farmers did a good job of forward contracting 2017 new crop bushels through hedging or buying put options. Those farmers will avoid many cash flow concerns this late fall and winter. However, farms holding large quantities of unpriced crops could see cash flow challenges and may want to focus on understanding other marketing strategies and tools rather than storing bushels unpriced.

Don’t wait too long to talk to your lender
Consider making cash sales of corn and soybeans, or delivering to a processor where better cash prices reflecting basis exist — do this as harvest wraps up and basis begins to improve. While basis should remain abnormally wide for December, most of the basis improvement for the winter months occurs between mid-November and the first week of January.

If you know your cash flow is already going to be a problem, communicate early with your lender. Many lenders spent the past couple of winters restructuring existing farm debt to stretch out principal payments and free up depleted working capital. These same lenders could be reluctant to restructure loans anytime soon without the commitment of the borrower to improve their cash flow management to meet existing debt obligations.

Lenders more cautious on loaning money
Most cash flow problems will appear by late December and January. Expect some lenders to require the use of the USDA Farm Service Agency’s FSA guaranteed loan program before advancing additional funds. Completing paperwork and getting necessary loan guarantee approval could take several months. Farms without access to typical farm operating loans should use caution before advancing family living and farm expenses on credit cards or higher interest-bearing debt.

FSA offers a low-interest, nine-month non-recourse marketing loan on harvested grain, but requires that the on-farm stored bushels be measured or the commercially-stored grain is under warehouse receipt. This marketing loan is limited to the county loan rates, which in Iowa are below the national loan rates of $1.95 per bushel for corn and $5 per bushel for soybeans. Thus, the marketing loan program is not a marketing strategy — just access to cheaper interest for up to nine months.

Shop around for better cash price bids
It could take all winter and well into spring for corn futures prices to rebound along with significant basis improvement. Overcoming the higher costs of commercial drying, shrink and storage might not be realized in addition to the wider basis at commercial storage facilities. The opportunity for better soybean cash prices could occur this winter should production concerns in South America emerge as they did each of the past two years.

Perhaps the greatest benefit of storing on-farm besides harvest efficiency is that it allows the farmer more time and improved chances to shop around for better cash prices reflected in basis. This will likely be true of processor bids, but not necessarily local elevators and co-op bids.

Consider delivering bushels now
With more farms facing cash flow constraints this fall, consider the delivery of bushels in December. By communicating with your grain merchandiser in advance, you can still “stay long in the deferred futures” using a basis contract and/or a minimum price contract.

Much of the actual cash price of the grain will be received upon delivery. Thus, you generate needed cash flow and eliminate storage costs, basis risk and accrued interest. You still have futures price risk in those deferred contract months, likely May or July 2018 futures. You’ll need to work with your grain merchandiser to “short futures” before that futures contract goes into delivery in late April or late June.

With large global ending stocks for corn, soybeans and even wheat hanging over the markets, expect this next year to bring continued struggles to manage production, financial and market price risks. The cost-price squeeze for many farm operations means tight crop profit margins and cash flow constraints.

Johnson is the ISU Extension farm management specialist in central Iowa. Contact him at [email protected]. Visit his website at extension.iastate.edu/polk/farm-management.

 

Help is available from ISU Extension

The ISU Ag Decision Maker website has a variety of resources for farm financial planning, financial analysis and stress management. Examples include help in assessing a farm’s financial situation with one-on-one financial analysis.

For more information visit Changing Farm Financial Conditions extension.iastate.edu/agdm/info/currentissues.html for financial planning help and stress management resources.

An easy way to compare various cash grain bids while reflecting your transportation costs using the new “Grain Bid Comparison Tool,” file A3-41 can be found on the ISU Ag Decision Maker website; or, simply search the internet for “Grain Bid Comparison Tool.” 

TAGS: Marketing
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