Dismissed as having no real impact on wheat, an early November frost may have done more damage than previously thought. USD grain analyst Jerry Norton says in the last few days there have been several indications that the frost hit the wheat crop harder than first thought. Private consultants in Argentina are forecasting as much as a two million ton loss, which would have a significant impact on the world wheat market and U.S. exporters.
"They are a major exporter, and much of the world has been looking for high quality milling wheat to be coming out of Argentina in the next few months, ahead of the U.S. crop," Norton says. "If their crop is significantly down it will have an impact on world supply."
Argentina has closed all registrations for new exports while the damage is assessed, which has contributed to wheat contracts trading nearly limit-up past few days. USDA plans to release a new forecast of the Argentine wheat crop on Dec. 11.