The poultry industry in the third quarter showed continued strength, according to a quarterly update from Rabobank's Food and Agriculture group.
The margin for poultry is still strong and the industry is benefiting from bullish market fundamentals. Supply is balanced in most regions, beef prices remain high and feed costs are low, Rabobank says.
With China as the major exception, the industry is profitable in almost all major global regions, the report says.
Avian influenza remains a major concern for the global industry, with new outbreaks in most regions in the world, except Australia and South America, the report says. However, the number of outbreaks has been lower in the previous months, and this offers the industry in these regions some time to recover.
"The performance in most regions is currently improving, but the industry should have optimal biosecurity as its first priority, as avian influenza pressure is still significant," says Nan-Dirk Mulder, Animal Protein Analyst at Rabobank. "Any new case can have a big impact on regional and global trade streams, as we have seen in the past months, in which Brazil and Thailand have taken further market share in global poultry trade from the US and China."
Rabobank believes the outlook for late 2015 and 2016 is bullish, as feed prices are still expected to remain at low pricing levels, and global breeding stock supply will be very low in regions with AI-related import restrictions, such as China and South-East Asia.
The expectation that China will face a shortage in poultry and pork supply next year could especially become a major swing factor for the global poultry industry. The expected further spread of AI to key US chicken production areas is a major wild card for the industry outlook in the second half of this year.
Regionally, the EU shows strong market conditions with healthy market balance and restrictive supply growth, while the U.S. has strong margins despite avian influenza trade bans.
In Brazil, the weak local economy leads to trading-down effect, lifting poultry consumption, and in China, some improvement is expected in poultry markets due to increasing pork prices.
Improved performance due to lower feed costs and price support from high beef and pork supply is expected in Russia.